Right now the only thing keeping the US economy strong are speculative assets, like stocks. As soon as that drops, the US is in a world of trouble. There seems to be a housing crisis brewing in the south, with prices droping like crazy. At the same time international investors are leaving the US and the general economy is not doing too well. Unemployment goes up and tariffs raise prices.

The US going down is probably going to crash the global economy as well. China has built up a massive corporate debt bomb right now. When you are pushing twice the level of the US, you really have a problem. Europe is not doing to great either, with the Ukraine war still hurting and debt still being a massive problem.

So yeah, we might very well be in a recession right now, but just do not know it.