Bill’s Excellent Adventure

Mar Attacks

Anecdotally, I feel like im a pretty different person than I was when I was 22. Had first kid at 34, and am now 42.

Analytically, I can’t know for sure if I would have significantly different feelings (e.g. regret, relief, etc.) if I had made different decisions. I recognize that the world is different now for 22 year olds compared to when I was 22. If “regret” avoidance is the main objective, then I’d guess that you could make a better assessment of potential outcomes (your possible feelings of regret) than your family as long as you’ve considered all of those outcome scenarios.

This is like that time when the supreme court had to hold deliberations on whether the local police in an active shooter situation could take the gun away from the shooter, and potentially violate the shooter’s second amendment rights. They didn’t rule on it right away, but issued a ruling that lower courts could not rule on the constitutionality of disarming the active shooter, and had to allow the shooter to continue shooting until the second amendment implications could be considered by the supreme court. Then they went into recess.

Edit: None of this happened

Risk Management. I have some very limited experience with using R, but not really any Python experience. There was a good set of tools (Excel add-ons) from ProbabilityManagement.org that gave a lot of flexibility in the models that you could build (e.g. not restricting a user to building financial risk models or schedule risk models like a lot of other risk management apps). I’m not really trying to complain about not being able to find this on Linux, and run an air-gapped Windows machine to hang on to this capability.

I also run silly things like modeling expected dollars needed to complete a Funko collection.

I recognize it may be a pretty niche issue, but i still haven’t found a Linux app that i can build Monte Carlo simulation models with, though I think some of the developers of these types of apps have made MacOS ports. The ones that I’ve historically used are Excel add-ons, but i haven’t found anything similar yet for Libre Office, or stand alone app.

Trump: And so then, four years later, I banned him from my resort.

Read and get really invested in A Song of Fire and Ice book series, then just make commitment to surviving until the next book comes out.

And if i did, it was in my official capacity as president, so I’m allowed to do it.

Engineer: It failed because it blew up. If it hadn’t blown up, the chances of success would have been much higher.

I work in risk management, but don’t really have a strong understanding of LLM mechanics. “Confidence” is something that i quantify in my work, but it has different terms that are associated with it. In modeling outcomes, I may say that we have 60% confidence in achieving our budget objectives, while others would express the same result by saying our chances of achieving our budget objective are 60%. Again, I’m not sure if this is what the LLM is doing, but if it is producing a modeled prediction with a CDF of possible outcomes, then representing its result with 100% confindence means that the LLM didn’t model any other possible outcomes other than the answer it is providing, which does seem troubling.

If Musk’s idea, wouldn’t it have been PayPal?

Will Trump now try to convince the supreme court that molesting kids was part of official duties as president, so he can’t be charged?

Maybe I don’t watch enough movies, but after stumbling on the third Venom movie while it was on Netflix, I might honestly consider it the worst movie I’ve seen in the last 10 years.

Teletubbies; into the Snyderverse

Gantt man schedules out your next battle with logic ties between precedent and subsequent activities.

Of all the promises Trump has made, I bet this is the one that he actually intends to keep. /s

Always suffering from “aw shit, I should have said…”

Speaking from US perspective, our tax code is a few thousand pages. I don’t think it’s meant for most people to understand.

That said, yeah the effective tax rate being a larger percent of one’s income than the income from a second job is probably something that would be understood by most if stated differently.

Edit: i read some further responses and realized it’s a different situation than a simple effective tax rate issue. I also didn’t really understand the foreign and domestic tax issues at hand and resulting tax penalties though, so I’m in the ridiculous group.