Texas is on its way to gerrymandering its own gerrymander. On Saturday, Republicans on the state house of representatives’ redistricting committee approved a new plan to add five Republican seats—part of a radical mid-decade scheme to help Republicans keep control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. The plan could go to a full vote in the chamber early next week, after which it will move on to the Republican-controlled state senate.
That’s an odd way to say that you can only win by cheating.
If conservatives didn’t cheat, they wouldn’t have won anything for decades, and fascism wouldn’t have risen to power.
That means California likely is as well.
Again? They already pulled this stunt in the 2000s. I guess they’re never happy.
Every state redistricts at least every 10 years, after the national census.
These are off-cycle, deliberately to fix districts where incumbent popularity is waning fast.
Dan Crenshaw’s needing to have his district redrawn for the third time since his first campaign, as people close to Houston downtown grow increasingly fed up with his podcaster bro bullshit and miserable constituent services.
So much of these redraws are fundamentally defensive as urban centers grow bluer and bluer. You’re going to see Dems in districts that go 90/10 at this rate, just to keep them out of seats the GOP plans to win 53/47.
This is being paired with some monumental disenfranchisement, as well. Texas saw a 6% turnout drop between '20 and '24 thanks to roll purges and voting site shenanigans. It’ll be worse in '26 and '28.
The drawback is that you can also have a blue wave if the districts are split too close and the results are 3-5 points higher than expected.
Basically what happened in 2008 and 2018. Too many districts were too close. But then in 2010, the wave pulled back and Republicans reclaimed everything.
Democrats keep sleeping on reform efforts and letting the House slide back into Republican control, in no small part because conservative Dems prefer negotiating with Republicans than progressives.
These are off-cycle, deliberately to fix districts where incumbent popularity is waning fast.
I know but comment I replied to sounded surprised that Texas is redistricting again since the 2000s. So I was pointing out we’ve already done so twice since then as a matter of standard practice. Doing it a second time in the same decade is unusually fast, doing it again 20+ years later is totally normal.
Doing it a second time in the same decade is unusually fast, doing it again 20+ years later is totally normal.
The 2003 redistricting was also out of cycle. This isn’t the second time in 20 years, it’s the fifth time in 30 years, which is a bit weird.
Your turn, California
