The US population in 2014 was 318.3M. In that year, 186 amber alerts for children were issued. Last year (2024), the population was 340.11M, and there were 188 alerts. That’s almost unchanged (0.56/0.58) in the past decade. In 2011, there were onu 158 alerts in 311.56M people, lower than today (0.51) (amberalert). There have been years where there were more, and years when there were less; 2006 was pretty bad (0.87).
I can’t get reliable statistics from 1880, when 72% of the population lived in rural communities. The population flipped from predominantly rural to urban in 1920 (1910: 54% rural; 49% rural in 1920, c.f https://www.seniorliving.org/ has a handy yearly breakdown), but the next best thing is to count alerts per million by demographic, and the metrics don’t break it down like that, unless you count % alerts by state, and measure the population in each state and the rural/urban breakdown. I’m not sure that’d be valid for extrapolating back into history to estimate how much safer children might have been from strangers in 1900. Anyway, amber alerts don’t tell us anything about stranger danger, since abductions are as likely to be by family members as not.
The point is, from amber alerts alone, 2011 was safer than 2024. The alerts/pop/year are all over the place, and claiming that it’s safer than it ever has been is wild, and I’d like to see some substantiation before I swallow that - even if we count only recent history for which we have reliable metrics, which is necessarily going to exclude anything earlier than, say, 1950.
abductions are as likely to be by family members as not.
So if it is family members, it really doesn’t matter if they are out and about does it?
Can we take a minute to say how something is very fucked up in Texas? People have talked about his before here. Texas is a fucked up state for children. 54 Amber alerts in Texas in 2024. California, Ohio, and North Carolina have the bulk of the rest, but they are like 15 and 16, not 54!
Remember I said Teens. So looking at Amber alerts as a statistic: the VAST bulk of the kids are 0 - 6 years old. For teens (ages 15-17+) there were only 12.
So if it is family members, it really doesn’t matter if they are out and about does it?
But yeah, it does, because it’s usually some estranged family member, grabbing the kid while they’re out. It’s not who’s grabbing them, it’s where.
Yeah, Texas is fucked up, in a great many ways. No argument there. It’s interesting reading, isn’t it?
No, I haven’t done an age breakdown. Getting more specific statistics, or culling them out of larger reports is more work than I care to invest in this.
Yes, you have a point about teens. 14 was “young adult” for ages; I’m not always convinced pushing it to 18 has been a wise thing. I kind of think having rites of passage and some more clear interstitial period where we recognize teens as “not children” would result in healthier teens.
Oh? What’s your source for that claim?
The US population in 2014 was 318.3M. In that year, 186 amber alerts for children were issued. Last year (2024), the population was 340.11M, and there were 188 alerts. That’s almost unchanged (0.56/0.58) in the past decade. In 2011, there were onu 158 alerts in 311.56M people, lower than today (0.51) (amberalert). There have been years where there were more, and years when there were less; 2006 was pretty bad (0.87).
I can’t get reliable statistics from 1880, when 72% of the population lived in rural communities. The population flipped from predominantly rural to urban in 1920 (1910: 54% rural; 49% rural in 1920, c.f https://www.seniorliving.org/ has a handy yearly breakdown), but the next best thing is to count alerts per million by demographic, and the metrics don’t break it down like that, unless you count % alerts by state, and measure the population in each state and the rural/urban breakdown. I’m not sure that’d be valid for extrapolating back into history to estimate how much safer children might have been from strangers in 1900. Anyway, amber alerts don’t tell us anything about stranger danger, since abductions are as likely to be by family members as not.
The point is, from amber alerts alone, 2011 was safer than 2024. The alerts/pop/year are all over the place, and claiming that it’s safer than it ever has been is wild, and I’d like to see some substantiation before I swallow that - even if we count only recent history for which we have reliable metrics, which is necessarily going to exclude anything earlier than, say, 1950.
So if it is family members, it really doesn’t matter if they are out and about does it?
Can we take a minute to say how something is very fucked up in Texas? People have talked about his before here. Texas is a fucked up state for children. 54 Amber alerts in Texas in 2024. California, Ohio, and North Carolina have the bulk of the rest, but they are like 15 and 16, not 54!
Remember I said Teens. So looking at Amber alerts as a statistic: the VAST bulk of the kids are 0 - 6 years old. For teens (ages 15-17+) there were only 12.
So have you compared the teen rate over time?
But yeah, it does, because it’s usually some estranged family member, grabbing the kid while they’re out. It’s not who’s grabbing them, it’s where.
Yeah, Texas is fucked up, in a great many ways. No argument there. It’s interesting reading, isn’t it?
No, I haven’t done an age breakdown. Getting more specific statistics, or culling them out of larger reports is more work than I care to invest in this.
Yes, you have a point about teens. 14 was “young adult” for ages; I’m not always convinced pushing it to 18 has been a wise thing. I kind of think having rites of passage and some more clear interstitial period where we recognize teens as “not children” would result in healthier teens.
and if parents are concerned about their teenager being abducted they could just give them a taser or other weapon and a phone