I’m a bit optimistic that insurance companies raising the alarm might make a difference. Protecting the bottom line is a gross reason to care but caring is good. The natural disasters worsened by climate change are not only costly when they happen, they’re unpredictable. Insurance companies gamble on predictability so uncertainty makes them lose money.

Regardless, the concept is slowly but steadily gaining ground. In July a big conference on tipping points in Exeter attracted actuaries, insurers and pension funds as well as scientists and activists. Emergency services and humanitarian organisations are showing increasing interest, too. And so are the Brazilian organisers of COP30, this year’s United Nations climate summit, who are expected to place particular emphasis on the subject.